marți, 29 noiembrie 2011








FRANKFURT (MNI) – The German government and five other Eurozone member states with a triple A credit rating are considering issuing bonds together, German daily Die Welt reported Monday, citing unnamed highly placed EU officials.

The paper said that the money raised by the bonds would finance the debts not only of the six AAA-rated countries — Germany, France, Finland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Austria — but also help provide financial assistance, under strict conditions, for Italy and Spain.
ince the bonds would not be “Eurobonds” jointly issued by all 17 Eurozone member states, they are being called “Elite bonds” or “Triple A bonds” for working purposes,


Because if stocks like the prospect of imminent printing, or at least the latest daily rumor thereof, until Germany once again opens its mouth and refutes everything, gold should love it. Sure enough, the yellow metal has opened $20 higher and is back over $1700 again.

Markets and some governments think the ECB should buy more govt debt

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-glimpse-future-stock-market-and-dollar

British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.

As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.
A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.

The Italian government yesterday said that in talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Prime Minister Mario Monti had agreed that an Italian collapse “would inevitably be the end of the euro.”
FABER:
I mainly short shares around the world. I have shorted American technology companies, I have shorted European stocks and shorted emerging market stocks.
Throughout history, when things have gone wrong, they print money...when they print money, you should own silver, you should own rice, you should own real assets
I'm long commodities and currencies, because if the world gets better, the shortages in commodities will make sure I make money; if the world economy doesn't get better, I'd rather own commodities because they're going to print money.

Nouriel Roubini : "Euro/$ should be 1.0 or lower

onomics Professor Roubini who sees the gold standard as dangerous. In fact, he said, the gold standard was a major reason for the Great Depression.

So, do we need motivation to learn? Definitely. But alone it is insufficient. Deliberate (intelligent) practice plus motivation are together necessary and sufficient. Let’s design our learning environments so that they contain both.

Gold long only if it breaks above $1800. That is resistance. $2000 will happen.
http://www.gizmag.com/lab-grown-meat/20625/

http://www.gizmag.com/printrbot-to-simplify-3d-printing/20618/
http://printrbot.com/contact/

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/100%20Most.jpg

TARE
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-vs-wine-we-have-winner

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/80-bond-managers-expect-qe3-2012-says-jpmorgan

as we think we are on the eve of major QE in the UK, US and (a bit) later on in the EZ
We don't disagree and if there is anything that can send BAC higher it will be the announcement of QE3. uy gold ahead of QE3 as money creation has a strong impact on prices Why gold and not BAC? Because, "Gold is highly sensitive to US QE, as every dollar of QE goes into M0, triggering the debasement of the USD. Gold = $ 8500/Oz: to catch up with the increase in the monetary base since 1920 (as it did in the early 80s). Gold = $1900/Oz: to A combination of weak Q1 2012 GDP and softening inflation could push the Fed to another round of monetary expansion.

SG economists look for a two-step easing process:

1) In January 2012, a major announcement with the Fed promising to keep rates at zero until unemployment falls below 7.5% or inflation moves above 3% on aa sustained basis.

2) In March 2012, the announcement of another round of QE. We expect the next round of QE to be concentrated on MBS purchases and be worth about $600bn over six to eight months. This would increase the Fed’s securities portfolio from currently $2.65trn to $3.25trn by the end of 2012.sustained basis.
You’re better off by investing in equities than in government bonds and in cash for the next 10 years. You have to live with volatility. I’m not all that bearish about stocks.
 Stocks in my view, in most countries are like they were in the 1970`s. In the 1970`s stock markets, and economies around the world did not do very much and were in a big sideways trading range for many years. We are in that kind of period now. They will soon start losing money on the money invested abroad so a massive amount of that money is going to come back home. I doubt that will go into bank deposits or bonds because interest rates are so low. Then at least they can go to commodities or stocks. –

http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/equity-ad-hoc/weekly-commentary-the-worlds-50-most-attractive-businesses-1179435685?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Trading-Floor+%28TradingFloor%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

sTocks
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45465887?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS


BRD
 
4December 2011
7 KEY CALLS
Key Call 1
: Buy Gilts with Sterling exposure
Key Call 2
: Buy US investment grade corporate bonds
Key Call 3
: Buy 10Y US Treasuries, expect the curve to flatten
Key Call 4
: Buy Emerging Asia curve steepeners (but caution on EM FX)
Key Call 5
: Long US Dollar / Short Euro
Key Call 6
: Long Gold / Short Oil
Key Call 7
: Long European Telecoms / Short European Utilities (eq


 
10December 2011
REAL IMPACT OF QE1 AND QE2, EXPECTED IMPACT OF QE3
QE1 QE2 QE3 assumptions
Start (date of announcement)
25 November 2008 27 August 2010
March 2012
End
31 March 2010 30 June 2011
End-2012
Duration (months)
15 8
8
Assumptions on the next steps for the Fed's unconventional tools
Multi-asset impact of the quantitative easing
QE1 QE2 Expected impact of QE3*S&P 500
36% 24%
positiveEurostoxx 50
23% 8%
positiveMSCI EM ($)
102% 18%
neutral10Y Treasuries
72bp 52bp
negative30Y Mortgage rate
-69bps +21bps
very positiveOil
68% 27%
positiveGold
36% 21%
very positiveEUR/USD
-3% -12%
negative EURUSD/EM Currencies positive USD
Source: SG Cross Asset Research 
*all else being equal


 
11December 2011
-101234567-10123456720 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10
BOLSTER POSITIONS IN GOLD AHEAD OF QE3
QE1 + QE2Gold priceUS ConsumerPrice IndexUS Monetarybase (M0)
US money base (M0) and US CPI urban consumers (all items). Logarithmic data, base 100 in 1920.
USD8500/Oz
: If goldcatches up with the increasein the monetary base since1920 (as it did in the early80s), its price would rise toUSD 8500/Oz.
USD1900/Oz
: To close thegap with the monetary baseincrease since July 2007,gold would have to rise to$1,900/oz, assuming fulltransmission from themonetary base increase tothe gold price


Financial add will boost banks



 
China debt: 72.5%, local gvn(37%), central gov 17%
Stocks à negative

Oil dependent on usd/eur, china growth
Base metals


Commodity basket: aud, cad, nok, rub vs $
Corporate bonds – best investmenet

Flow of funds: grows: us / eur stocks, us credit
Decrease: us, eur bonds, global commodities


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