vineri, 2 decembrie 2011
es, there will be consolidations in the commodity bull
market just as all markets have consolidations. In 1987, stocks declined 40-80
percent worldwide, but it was not the end of the secular bull market in stocks.
EU is moving towards an Iranian oil embargo, but prices
could spike if Tehran
moves first, w
China's
central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for its commercial lenders on
Wednesday for the first time in nearly three years to ease credit strains and
shore up an economy running at its weakest pace since 2009.
SWEEDEN
După ce le începutul lunii am dat o avertizare și
după ce săptămâna trecută am anunțat că Austria se pregătește să taie
finanțarea Estului, iată că nefericitul moment a devenit oficial. Practic, din
acest moment, băncile austriece sunt obligate(de către Banca Centrală a Austriei)
să se izoleze de estul Europei pentru a-și ajuta țara de origine să-și conserve
ratingu
hard landing for China will have a major negative
impact on global commodities and risk currencies, says Marc Fabe
f the Chinese economy grows at 10 percent, or 5 percent or
no growth, it has a huge impact on iron ore, copper, nickel, anything
MIRAMAR
- invest
e central bank must stop the bond run at all costs because
it is endangering the stability of the single currency. The best way to do it
in the near term is to impose a ceiling on the yield of sovereign bonds issued
by governments that follow responsible fiscal policies and are not subject to
adjustment programs
Fiecare ţară din zona euro are propriile datorii, iar criza se extinde pentru că investitorii îngrijoraţi cer acum dobânzi ridicate pentru a cumpăra datoriileunor ţări precum Italia. Grecia, Portugalia şi Irlanda au ajuns deja în situaţia în care nu se mai pot împrumuta la aceste costuri exorbitante, în timp ce chiar şi cea mai puternică economie din Europa, Germania, se împrumută la costuri mai mari.
Pentru a pune capăt acestei situaţii, toate cele 17 naţiuni din zona euro ar putea emite eurobonduri comune, profitându-se astfel, de solvabilitatea statelor puternice pentru a micşora costurile de împrumut ale ţărilor mai slabe. Dar cum această măsură i-ar creşte propria dobândă, Germania se împotriveşte introducerii euro-obligaţiunilor.
Banca Centrală Europeană tipăreşte bani
Centralizarea fiscalităţii europene
5. Restrângerea zonei euro
Sectorul de producţie din China s-a micşorat în noiembrie
pentru prima oară în aproape trei ani,
Dacă în 2007 vindeam apartamentele la 1.000-1.200 euro/mp,
astăzi, aceleaşi produse, le vindem cu 650 euro/mp“Trebuie să ne uităm la o
familie cu venituri pe cartea de muncă de 1.000 de euro lunar, care pot plăti o
rată de 200 de euro pentru un credit de 45.000 de euro. Aceasta este piaţa acum.
Preţul aurul va suferi curând corecţii, un moment bun pentru
a investi în metalul preţios, iar dolari se va întări pe fondul a prea mult pessimism
Rezultatele unui sondaj realizat de televiziunea ZDF arată
faptul că aproape 80% dintre germani refuză emiterea de eurobonduri.
Cancelarul german a subliniat că uniunea fiscală poate fi
creată doar cu anumite modificări ale tratatului actual.
"Viitorul monedei euro este inseperabil de unitatea europeană
talia va plăti pentru împrumut o dobândă de 4 – 5% 600 de
miliarde de euro
n Vietnam,
un programator cu experiență de senior primește circa 28.940 dolari, de
aproximativ cinci ori mai puțin decât colegul său de breaslă din suedia, care
are un salariu anual de 167.890 dolari. O astfel de țară este România, în
un programator senior are un salariu mediu anual de 40.000 de dolari, în timp
ce un junior câștigă anual în jur de 4.700 de dolari.
1. În fiecare zi, 1% din populaţia lumii mănâncă de la
McDonald's.
sigla aurie a lanţului de fast-food a fost recunoscută de
88% dintre persoane, în timp ce doar 54% au recunoscut crucea creştină.
50 mil unsold apartments in china !!! = 5 T $
900$ castig pe fam in Beijing
, 25% chirie (200 garsoniera cu baie in comuna), 6 z / sap
Deng zicea ca daca reforma duce la polarizare, asta
inseamana ca a esuat
Social unrest
If the euro zone breaks apart, it can occur only at the top,
i.e., only the strongest countries can afford to leave the euro and create a
new currency.
joi, 1 decembrie 2011
I suspect agriculture products would give better protection
during the next several years although gold and silver will be good too –
perhaps second best."
he big picture endgame in Europe is that they will also
monetize like in the US
and that will postpone the problem, but it will not solve it
old is overdue for a correction. I own gold and I'm not
selling my gold. Gold has been up 11 years in a row, that's extremely unusual
for any asset. 11 years in a row, without a single down year, so somewhere
along the line, gold is going to have a correction.
Jim rogers: yen > US > gold ( cump 1400, 1500) – 1700 e
Silver is 40% lower top, gold 20%
The euro hovered around $1.3451, having jumped to a one-week
high of $1.3533 on Wednesday after central banks of the United States, euro zone, Canada, Britain,
Japan
and Switzerland
lowered the cost of dollar loans to the banking system.
don't think this is going to be something that's going to
kick off a two-month rally in risk assets unless you see it combined with
something of a more structural nature coming out of the euro zone,"
Beijing cuts bank reserve requirement by 50 bps
, a professor from the Chinese
National Defense
University, said China will not hesitate to protect Iran even with
a third World War..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-turns-bearish-squid-releases-top-trades-2012-and-its-not-pretty
miercuri, 30 noiembrie 2011
MARC FABER:
there should be a rally in stocks.
a fost un low in oct 4, apoi a urcat apoi a scazut mai sus de low, market is oversold
acum nu se vor depasi minimele.
multi investitori cred ca bondurile se vor muta in stocks
S&P >> latin si europe si se va continua
we are setup for a december rally, market takes already in account QE3
I don't think that it will make another high
bad 30 years US bond
gold is not a bubble
before the disaster, ECB will print money, so they postpone the crisis
the best thing is to break up the Euro zones
euro will weaken --> stock will go better, but better in ASIA
USD will strenghten, us problems lower than european, and against emerging countries
china easy slowdown
HK shares
increase taxes of the wealthy
middle-east will burn, attack on iran is more and more likely
us will make pressure on china
before the fall of a government the inflation will go very high
S&P will drop to 1000 --> then QE3 -->
there should be a rally in stocks.
a fost un low in oct 4, apoi a urcat apoi a scazut mai sus de low, market is oversold
acum nu se vor depasi minimele.
multi investitori cred ca bondurile se vor muta in stocks
S&P >> latin si europe si se va continua
we are setup for a december rally, market takes already in account QE3
I don't think that it will make another high
bad 30 years US bond
gold is not a bubble
before the disaster, ECB will print money, so they postpone the crisis
the best thing is to break up the Euro zones
euro will weaken --> stock will go better, but better in ASIA
USD will strenghten, us problems lower than european, and against emerging countries
china easy slowdown
HK shares
increase taxes of the wealthy
middle-east will burn, attack on iran is more and more likely
us will make pressure on china
before the fall of a government the inflation will go very high
S&P will drop to 1000 --> then QE3 -->
ajunge in suportul anterior
RANIAN CENTRAL TV CONFIRMS THAT EIGHT UK
EMBASSY STAFF TAKEN HOSTAGE
Green
Printing money will alleviate the risk of default, allow
businesses to invest, reduce tax on persons and corporations, provide incentive
to reform, devalue euro to compete and export so leads to jobs and growth, not
affect inflation because banks use to increase capital base and not enter into
economy.
eal prices and a price-to-rent ratio. Real prices are back
to 1999/2000 levels, and the price-to-rent ratio is also back to 2000 levels.
1/5 homeowners are under water
GS:
WNR target 23$ - 95%
PXD – 116$ - 33%
NBL – 113$ - 25%
XOM – 92$ - 21%
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/commodity-inflation-and-spare-capacity-food-thought
'inflation' signs in the food industry, where it is
becoming, somewhat incredibly in this age of supposed frugality and
deleveraging, cheaper to eat-out than to cook-at-home. This price
disequilibrium has seen consumers respond accordingly; spending on food
away from home has picked up while spending on food at home has slowed
and also very notably households spending the marginal unit of 'time' working
as opposed to 'eating' as economic frailties continue.
One additional point to consider is the opportunity cost to households. In this weak economic environment, if afforded an extra hour of time, a household will be more likely to work in that hour than spend that time going to the grocery store and preparing food. Again, this implies a relative shift, substituting away from grocery stores into restaurants.
Spending up at restaurants, down at grocers
With prices at restaurants rising more slowly than grocers, consumers have responded in-kind. Chart 2 illustrates this relative consumption shift. The result is predictable but telling. As a share of total personal consumption expenditures, spending at restaurants has been rising steadily since mid-2009. For grocers, on the other hand, this share has been essentially flat.
PIMCO here they are: "i) Scenario 1: Exports
minimally effected. Concerns would drive initial price response; Oil
could spike initially to $130 to $140 per barrel and then settle in a higher
range, around $120 to $125; ii) Scenario 2: Iranian
exports cut off for one month. In this case, we would expect prices
could reach previous all-time highs of $145/bbl or even higher depending
on issues with shipping; iii) Scenario 3: Iranian exports are lost for
half a year. We think oil prices could probably rally and average $150
for the six months, with notable spikes above that level; iv) Scenario
4: Greater loss of production from around the region, either
through subsequent Iranian response or due to lack of ability to move oil
through Straits of Hormuz. This is the Armageddon scenario in which
oil prices could soar, significantly constraining global growth. Forecasting
prices in the prior scenarios is dangerous enough. So, we won’t even
begin to forecast a cap or target price in this final Doomsday scenario
. Core OPEC countries (Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait
and UAE) are producing at their highest level in decades.
We estimate that the loss of Libyan oil added roughly $20
per barrel to prices over the past six months. Saudi
Arabia has limited export capability to the Red Sea and
relies on the perilous Strait of Hormuz for
most of its crude oil exports. A
price raise over 20days - min 3-5%
price rais over 6 month - 8-10%
macd -
yield - 4-10% (fund manager la asta se uita)
latest profit ultimul an -
revenue 1 year
news - lot of positive news
p/e/peg - look for growth and value, p/e -15-24, peg < 1
marți, 29 noiembrie 2011
FRANKFURT (MNI) – The German government and five other Eurozone member states with a triple A credit rating are considering issuing bonds together, German daily Die Welt reported Monday, citing unnamed highly placed EU officials.
The paper said that the money raised by the bonds would finance the debts not only of the six AAA-rated countries — Germany, France, Finland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Austria — but also help provide financial assistance, under strict conditions, for Italy and Spain.
ince the bonds would not be “Eurobonds” jointly
issued by all 17 Eurozone member states, they are being called “Elite bonds” or
“Triple A bonds” for working purposes,
Markets and some governments think the ECB should buy more govt debt
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-glimpse-future-stock-market-and-dollar
British embassies in the eurozone have been told to draw up plans to help British expats through the collapse of the single currency, amid new fears for Italy and Spain.
As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.
A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.
The Italian government yesterday said that in talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Prime Minister Mario Monti had agreed that an Italian collapse “would inevitably be the end of the euro.”
FABER:
I mainly short shares around the world. I have shorted American technology companies, I have shorted European stocks and shorted emerging market stocks.
Throughout history, when things have gone wrong, they print money...when they print money, you should own silver, you should own rice, you should own real assets
I'm long commodities and currencies, because if the world gets better, the shortages in commodities will make sure I make money; if the world economy doesn't get better, I'd rather own commodities because they're going to print money.
Nouriel Roubini : "Euro/$ should be 1.0 or lower
onomics Professor Roubini who sees the gold standard as dangerous. In fact, he said, the gold standard was a major reason for the Great Depression.
So, do we need motivation to learn? Definitely. But alone it is insufficient. Deliberate (intelligent) practice plus motivation are together necessary and sufficient. Let’s design our learning environments so that they contain both.
Gold long only if it breaks above $1800. That is resistance. $2000 will happen.
http://www.gizmag.com/lab-grown-meat/20625/
http://www.gizmag.com/printrbot-to-simplify-3d-printing/20618/
http://printrbot.com/contact/
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/100%20Most.jpg
TARE
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-vs-wine-we-have-winner
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/80-bond-managers-expect-qe3-2012-says-jpmorgan
as we think we are on the eve of major QE in the UK, US and (a bit) later on in the EZ
We don't disagree and if there is anything that can send BAC higher it will be the announcement of QE3. uy gold ahead of QE3 as money creation has a strong impact on prices Why gold and not BAC? Because, "Gold is highly sensitive to US QE, as every dollar of QE goes into M0, triggering the debasement of the USD. Gold = $ 8500/Oz: to catch up with the increase in the monetary base since 1920 (as it did in the early 80s). Gold = $1900/Oz: to A combination of weak Q1 2012 GDP and softening inflation could push the Fed to another round of monetary expansion.
SG economists look for a two-step easing process:
1) In January 2012, a major announcement with the Fed promising to keep rates at zero until unemployment falls below 7.5% or inflation moves above 3% on aa sustained basis.
2) In March 2012, the announcement of another round of QE. We expect the next round of QE to be concentrated on MBS purchases and be worth about $600bn over six to eight months. This would increase the Fed’s securities portfolio from currently $2.65trn to $3.25trn by the end of 2012.sustained basis.
You’re better off by investing in equities than in government bonds and in cash for the next 10 years. You have to live with volatility. I’m not all that bearish about stocks.
Stocks in my view, in most countries are like
they were in the 1970`s. In the 1970`s stock markets, and economies around the
world did not do very much and were in a big sideways trading range for many
years. We are in that kind of period now. They will soon start losing money on
the money invested abroad so a massive amount of that money is going to come
back home. I doubt that will go into bank deposits or bonds because interest
rates are so low. Then at least they can go to commodities or stocks. –http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/equity-ad-hoc/weekly-commentary-the-worlds-50-most-attractive-businesses-1179435685?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Trading-Floor+%28TradingFloor%29&utm_content=Google+Reader
sTocks
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45465887?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS
BRD
|
4December
2011
7 KEY CALLS
Key Call 1
: Buy Gilts
with Sterling exposure
Key Call 2
: Buy US
investment grade corporate bonds
Key Call 3
: Buy 10Y US
Treasuries, expect the curve to flatten
Key Call 4
: Buy
Emerging Asia curve steepeners (but caution
on EM FX)
Key Call 5
: Long US
Dollar / Short Euro
Key Call 6
: Long Gold
/ Short Oil
Key Call 7
: Long
European Telecoms / Short European Utilities (eq
|
|
10December
2011
REAL IMPACT OF QE1 AND QE2, EXPECTED
IMPACT OF QE3
QE1 QE2 QE3
assumptions
Start (date
of announcement)
25 November 2008 27 August 2010
March 2012
End
31 March 2010 30 June 2011
End-2012
Duration (months)
15 8
8
Assumptions on the next steps for the Fed's
unconventional tools
Multi-asset impact of the quantitative easing
QE1 QE2
Expected impact of QE3*S&P 500
36% 24%
positiveEurostoxx
50
23% 8%
positiveMSCI EM ($)
102% 18%
neutral10Y Treasuries
72bp 52bp
negative30Y
Mortgage rate
-69bps
+21bps
very positiveOil
68% 27%
positiveGold
36% 21%
very positiveEUR/USD
-3% -12%
negative EURUSD/EM Currencies positive USD
Source: SG
Cross Asset Research
*all else
being equal
 |
11December 2011
-101234567-10123456720 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 00 10
BOLSTER POSITIONS IN GOLD AHEAD OF QE3
QE1 + QE2Gold
priceUS ConsumerPrice IndexUS Monetarybase (M0)
US money base (M0) and US CPI urban consumers (all items). Logarithmic
data, base 100 in 1920.
USD8500/Oz
: If goldcatches up with the increasein the monetary base since1920 (as it did in
the early80s), its price would rise toUSD 8500/Oz.
USD1900/Oz
: To close thegap
with the monetary baseincrease since July
2007,gold would have to rise to$1,900/oz, assuming fulltransmission from themonetary base
increase tothe gold price
Financial add will boost banks
China
debt: 72.5%, local gvn(37%), central gov 17%
Stocks à negative
Oil dependent on usd/eur, china growth
Base metals
Commodity basket: aud, cad, nok, rub vs $
Corporate bonds – best investmenet
Flow of funds: grows: us / eur stocks, us credit
Decrease: us, eur bonds, global commodities
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