Investors move to price in euro split
The deteriorating eurozone debt crisis has started to affect
triple A-rated countries, with yield spreads over German Bunds reaching records
Euro drops on fears over stronger states
The single currency fell as the boost from leadership
changes in Italy and Greece faded,
and focus turned to the risk of eurozone contagion
Professor Nouriel Roubini wrote via twitter "
Gold Standard in 1930s didnt allow preventing runs on banks & sovereigns:
it forced fiscal austerity that pushed Europe
in runs & Depression "
"Hard money & keeping the gold standard, equivalent to today's EZ monetary
union, pushed Europe into bank runs & the Great Depression in 1931" he
added
Nouriel Roubini : the creation of a ‘big bazooka’
from the resources of the International Monetary Fund, the ECB and other
institutions is the most likely course of action. There is a 50% chance of this
being unveiled in “the next few months”,
“In our view, even that limited plan may fail and once it fails it is not
obvious that the international community at that point is going to ‘double
down’ after having committed up to €600-€800 billion,” “At that point, orderly
debt restructuring in Italy and Spain may become the right thing to do and
eventually if the eurozone is not sustainable the idea of first Greece and
Portugal but then of Italy or Spain exiting the eurozone cannot be ruled out.” this could occur by the end of 2013 or in the opening months of 2014.
So who is selling? It seems like we have three overall
themes that have caused the lack of support over the last week. The market was
a bit unnerved by the news that John Paulson, the world’s most prominent gold
investor, had reduced his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust by one-third. He is
the founder and President of Paulson & Co, a hedge fund which shot to fame
in 2007 when he predicted and made billions on the subprime crisis. His
flagship fund was down 40 percent in September after getting a number of bets
spectacularly wrong. Whether he has moved into other gold investments such as
physical bars in order to hide his hand or whether it was required in order to
pay redemptions and cover losses elsewhere remains to be seen.
O recesiune globală pe termen lung este sigură iar China
trebuie să se concentreze asupra problemelor domestice, a declarat vicepremierul
Wang Qishan (foto), fost primar al Beijingului și unul dintre cei mai
importanți lideri chinezi.
”Singurul lucru de care putem fi siguri, în mijlocul tuturor
incertitudinilor, este că recesiunea economică globală cauzată de criza financiară
internațională va fi cronică”, a spus Wang, citat de agenția de știri oficială
a Chinei, Xinhua.
There is no "right" price of gold as for 3000
years random shocks to supply of gold have caused massive recessionary
inflations & deflations "
ur
research suggests that 65 percent of the job losses from 2007 to 2009 came from
the drop in household spending induced by the collapse in home prices and its
effect on a highly levered household sector.
Both US
housing starts and permits in October are better than expected and as we wrote
earlier in our macro
update the US
housing market, though still fragile, is improving from what may be the bottom
for now.
US housing market may have reached bottom;
Gary
Locke, who took up his new post in August, also said the United States will work to double exports to China by 2015 and that China should liberalise its
financial sector.
Locke
said that the build-up of U.S.
military forces in Australia was not aimed at trying to
contain China.
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