vineri, 11 noiembrie 2011


retail bullion demand from China and India together amounted to 2,000 tonnes a year, about 85 per cent of the world's annual mined supply. monthly purchases matched almost half that for the whole of 2010...

"A closely followed hedge fund manager known for correctly betting on the housing market’s collapse four years ago purchased a small stake in the nation’s largest mortgage insurance company in a bet that the housing market has neared bottom

Italy had 2,451.8 tonnes of gold, or roughly $140 billion dollars


The IAEA report on Iranian weaponization is due to come out earlier than expected on Nov 9th. We maintain our belief that this report is likely to state that Iran close to becoming a full nuclear power and we look at the near term implications in this note.
  • Nothing new: The report is unlikely to contain much new information, but rather to “connect-the-dots” in line with increasing US/Israeli influence over the IAEA. It is very difficult to prove weaponization absent a mushroom cloud.
  • Breaking out: We believe that Iran does not intend to create nuclear weapons but are looking to reach “breakout” potential to act as a deterrent. We believe this is 6-12 months away, shifting the balance of power significantly. Iran will continue with its program regardless of international sanctions or pressure.
  • Oil support, sanctions and attacks: Oil should get more support and take the Brent-WTI spread back toward $20 given the broken nature of that market. The first move may be to sanction the Central Bank of Iran, cutting oil exports and dividend repatriation (negative for MTN and the like). Russia and China will push back on this toward the end of the month, increasing the probability of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities late November/December, which we upgraded to 40% a month ago.

What chance of an attack?
From a comfortable level of 0% last year, we put the chances of an attack on Iranian nuclearfacilities at 5% in March, 15% in June, 20% in September and then finally upgraded it to 40%in October,
Christmas day would especially annoy everyone),diminishing back to 15-20% once we get through to mid-January as Iranian enrichmentprogresses to dangerous levels and the pace of rhetoric subsides.


They would start printing money. No one would lend them money. Inflation would go through the roof and the Greek economy would get worse and worse. That`s not good for Greece. It`s not good for the world.

I would prefer silver because it is still depressed on a historic basis. Silver is thirty percent below its all-time high. Gold is ten percent below its all time high. I would prefer one just on relative value, silver is probably better.


http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2011/11/autos_housing_a.html

The fact that the levels remain so low today relative to their historical averages means that housing construction and automobile manufacturing have fallen well below what's needed to keep up with growing population. That suggests the potential for a significant positive contribution from these two sectors if the recovery could ever get back on track.

Niciun comentariu:

Trimiteți un comentariu