retail bullion demand from China and India together amounted to 2,000
tonnes a year, about 85 per cent of the world's annual mined supply. monthly
purchases matched almost half that for the whole of 2010...
"A closely followed
hedge fund manager known for correctly betting on the housing market’s collapse
four years ago purchased a small stake in the nation’s largest mortgage
insurance company in a bet that the housing market has neared bottom
Italy had 2,451.8 tonnes of gold, or roughly $140 billion
dollars
- Nothing new: The report is unlikely to contain much new information, but rather to “connect-the-dots” in line with increasing US/Israeli influence over the IAEA. It is very difficult to prove weaponization absent a mushroom cloud.
- Breaking out: We believe that Iran does not intend to create nuclear weapons but are looking to reach “breakout” potential to act as a deterrent. We believe this is 6-12 months away, shifting the balance of power significantly. Iran will continue with its program regardless of international sanctions or pressure.
- Oil support, sanctions and attacks: Oil should get more support and take the Brent-WTI spread back toward $20 given the broken nature of that market. The first move may be to sanction the Central Bank of Iran, cutting oil exports and dividend repatriation (negative for MTN and the like). Russia and China will push back on this toward the end of the month, increasing the probability of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities late November/December, which we upgraded to 40% a month ago.
What
chance of an attack?
From a comfortable level of 0% last year, we put the
chances of an attack on Iranian nuclearfacilities
at 5% in March, 15% in June, 20% in September and then finally upgraded it to
40%in October,
Christmas day
would especially annoy everyone),diminishing
back to 15-20% once we get through to mid-January as Iranian enrichmentprogresses to dangerous levels and the pace of
rhetoric subsides.
They would start printing money. No one would lend them
money. Inflation would go through the roof and the Greek economy would get
worse and worse. That`s not good for Greece. It`s not good for the world.
I would prefer silver because it is still depressed on a
historic basis. Silver is thirty percent below its all-time high. Gold is ten
percent below its all time high. I would prefer one just on relative value,
silver is probably better.
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2011/11/autos_housing_a.html
The fact that the levels remain so low today relative to
their historical averages means that housing construction and automobile
manufacturing have fallen well below what's needed to keep up with growing
population. That suggests the potential for a significant positive contribution
from these two sectors if the recovery could ever get back on track.
Niciun comentariu:
Trimiteți un comentariu