Soybeans
Bull markets in commodities should not distract us from the
fact that spikes in prices are followed by collapsing prices. This observation
has nothing to do with being a “commodity bull” or a “commodity bear” but with
historical facts.
When commodity prices are low, no new production capacities are built and eventually shortages drive prices higher. When commodity prices are high, new production capacities come on stream and alternate ways of production are invented which subsequently drive down prices. Now for some commodities, the supply response is relatively short. If there is a soybean shortage which causes prices to increase, farmers can respond within one or two planting season. That is why agricultural commodities fluctuate widely within brief periods.
The (is) fact that whereas for agricultural prices the supply response is relatively short, for industrial commodities it is very long. Say there is a shortage of copper! It will take a very long time (12 – 20 years) until the mining industry will open new mines. Therefore, the industrial commodity cycle will tend to last longer than the agricultural cycle. However I would like to emphasize that at some point, prices for industrial commodities will also collapse and this irrespective of how much money our friends at central banks around the world will print. –
When commodity prices are low, no new production capacities are built and eventually shortages drive prices higher. When commodity prices are high, new production capacities come on stream and alternate ways of production are invented which subsequently drive down prices. Now for some commodities, the supply response is relatively short. If there is a soybean shortage which causes prices to increase, farmers can respond within one or two planting season. That is why agricultural commodities fluctuate widely within brief periods.
The (is) fact that whereas for agricultural prices the supply response is relatively short, for industrial commodities it is very long. Say there is a shortage of copper! It will take a very long time (12 – 20 years) until the mining industry will open new mines. Therefore, the industrial commodity cycle will tend to last longer than the agricultural cycle. However I would like to emphasize that at some point, prices for industrial commodities will also collapse and this irrespective of how much money our friends at central banks around the world will print. –
My guess is we see 30 year mortgage rates under 4% and a
significant pickup in mortgage refinance activity - although probably not the
level of refinance activity that happened in 2003 or 2009.
Nanotube Cables Hit a Milestone: As Good as Copper
Gold's
competition with currencies was documented in an academic study published in
June 1988 in the Journal of Political Economy written by Harvard economics
professor Lawrence Summers and University
of Michigan economics
professor Robert Barsky. Summers and Barsky found that, in a free market, there
is an inverse relationship between the price of gold and the real rate of
interest:
. We don't expect to see an uptick in home buying,
especially if people think homes will stop decline in price another 10 to 20
percent. So a drop in mortgage rates won't make much of a difference. For now
the trade is to be long dollars as people wait to see what will happen with Greece
and the EU/IMF aid.
In 29 – in US
s-a pierdut 30% din masa monetara
Niciun comentariu:
Trimiteți un comentariu