nited States will produce twice as many graduates in the
social sciences and business as in science, technology, engineering, and
mathematics. We estimate that the country may face a shortfall of almost two
million technical and analytical workers. Europe
has too few engineers, as well. Even Germany’s machinery industry has a
shortage of more than 8,000 engineers,
ven if we avoid a new crisis, hopes for a desirable,
V-shaped recovery that would deliver annual medium-term GDP growth of 2 to 3
percent in the developed world are no longer realistic.
Corporate earnings and cash flows have never been stronger
e 400 largely unknown midsize cities in emerging markets
will generate 40 percent of global growth over the next 15 years
business leaders will need to master the tools for decision
making under uncertainty: decision trees, Monte Carlo
simulation, scenario planning, and war gaming
Most executives think a double-dip recession will hit
advanced economies over the next six months, and nearly three-quarters say
there is at least some chance of the eurozone splintering within the next two
years.
espite the natural disasters and a declining population, Japan’s economy
need not continue to slump. As efficient as the country’s export industries
have been, there is still much room for improving productivity—low-hanging
fruit that a more open Japan
will eventually enjoy.
has measured the 1930s as the time when the rate of
technological change was highest in the American econom
Prior to 1950, life expectancy rose at a rate three times
higher than after 1950; lowering infant mortality and inventing penicillin are
easier problems to solve than curing cancer. In 1900, only about 6 percent of
Americans graduated from high school, but by the late 1960s, this number was
about 80 percent. What has happened since? High school graduation rates have
gone down, despite the fact that per pupil expenditures are higher than ever.
Test scores have been flat for decades.
he average Chinese user spends four hours a week watching
online video content, such as movies, TV, and live sports—double the time spent
by US users. Internet Protocol television (IPTV), with its video-on-demand
offering, isn’t about to take off.
Ma Zhaoxu repeated Beijing's position that it will continue to gradually reform its currency policy, "strengthening the flexibility of the renminbi exchange rate."
He urged U.S. legislators to "proceed from the broader picture of Sin
Goldman has just slashed its forecast for the world economy
and now sees a recession in France
and Germany
On this basis, we expect inflation to moderate further in
the first half of 2012, giving the ECB ample room to lower policy rates. We
see the ECB lowering its repo rate by 50bp in December, with the risk that a
cut may come earlier.
China
is quite vulnerable to slower growth in its major export markets -as it is such
an export-driven economy. We estimate that a slowdown in world GDP growth (ex
China) results in about a 1-for-1 hit to Chinese growth, a much bigger number
than in any other major economy.
In addition, Chinese policymakers have tightened aggressively in recent months, mainly via more stringent loan guidance to the banks. we do not believe that China is a ‘bubble economy’
In addition, Chinese policymakers have tightened aggressively in recent months, mainly via more stringent loan guidance to the banks. we do not believe that China is a ‘bubble economy’
There are no double-digit investment returns
anywhere in sight for owners of financial assets. Bonds, stocks and real estate
are in fact overvalued because of near zero percent interest rates and a
developed world growth rate closer to 0 than the 3 – 4% historical norms. There
is only a New Normal economy at best and a
global recession at worst to look forward to in future years.
biggest Belgian bank (whose assets are 180% of Belgian GDP)
Dexia is
in trouble. Potentially very big trouble. Sure enough, even those
embarrassingly late to the party "analysts" at Moody's have just
figured it out: "M
So, the insiders are selling and the stupid foreigners have been buying Chinese shares. “The steps that need to be taken to avoid a dissolvent situation are massive,” said Roubini, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business.
Among
the measures needed to resolve the European crisis is an easing of European
Central Bank policy and rates, a lowering in the value of the euro, a
recapitalization of European banks and an “orderly process to allow the exit of
Greece from
the euro zone,”
“What is the likelihood of all of these things occurring in a coherent,
consistent and realistic way to avoid the mess?” he asked. “I think it’s a low
probability because of the political constraints.”The European debt crisis could have consequences that would be “worse” than the collapse of Lehman Brothers, he said
verall volume of financing to U.S. small businesses, gained 19
percent in August from a year earlier, and 8.6 percent from July,
the bottom 80% of Americans were spending, every year,
roughly 110% of their income
The prescription for what ails the global economy follows
directly from the diagnosis: strong government expenditures, aimed at
facilitating restructuring, promoting energy conservation, and reducing
inequality, and a reform of the global financial system that creates an
alternative to the buildup of reserves
&P says that "The prospect that Europe might dip into recession again is looking more likely.
e now forecast GDP growth in the eurozone at 1.1% in 2012, compared with 1.5%
in our earlier projection. For the U.K., we expect a GDP growth rate
at 1.7% in 2012, slightly below our 1.8% projection in August. a new recession
in Western Europe next year at about 40%
e outline four systematic risks that we believe have the
potential to cause financial market turmoil: 1) private lending (a
current issue); 2) property price correction (potentially over the next three
to twelve months); 3) bank bad debt write-off and eventual recapitalization
(potentially over the next two to three years); and 4) “hot money” outflows
(event driven and highly unpredictable).
deral
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday described the recovery as "close
to faltering," economists at Goldman Sachs said the United States
is on "the edge" of recession, and forecasters at the Economic Cycle
Research Institute said the country's economy
was "tipping" into another downturn.
Bernanke
delivered the warning in testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress,
saying the Fed -- the U.S.
central bank -- is prepared to do more to support the recovery.
Economists at Goldman Sachs lowered their forecast for U.S.
economic growth in the first quarter of next year to a paltry 0.5 percent
Economic Cycle Research Institute, a business cycle
forecasting firm, argued that the economy was already past the point of no
return, as was the ability of policymakers to help.
hey're not going to let the euro break up. They're not going
to let European monetary union fall apart," Geithne They're going
to take the steps to move closer to fiscal union, with the broader disciplines
on budget policy you need to make monetary union work
It’s very dangerous in life to be right when the governments
are wrong. - Dr. Marc Faber, in Bull So
The price of copper is signaling a very serious slowdown (if
not complete collapse) in China.
This is what is really behind the move down in all commodities. A hard landing
in China
would be devastating for the global economy. The Shanghai composite is making new lows along
with copper, which is very bearish. Also stay away from the Australian and
Canadian currencies. If China
crashes, these markets will get massacred
ut the US dollar will be your best friend for the next few
months. As global liquidity contracts on EU debt concerns and a possible hard
landing in China,
Faber advises investors to be long the dollar. Note this is a short-term call;
longer term the dollar is going to zero.
We had a trade war in the 30`s which led to the Great
Depression. We already have small signs of trade wars breaking out, Brazil, France,
other places...now America.
This can be very dangerous in the end A bill recently cleared a hurdle in the Senate to impose tariffs on Chinese imports.
This can be very dangerous in the end A bill recently cleared a hurdle in the Senate to impose tariffs on Chinese imports.
Global food prices have fallen back in the last few months
but remained at historically high levels
he United
States gains about 6,000 jobs for every $1
billion improvement in the trade balance, so $100 billion would work out to
600,000 jobs, he said. That is more than the anemic U.S. economy has generated in the
past six months combined, and would be enough to shave about four-tenths of a
point off the 9.1 percent jobless rate.
His study showed that a 10 percent yuan appreciation would
reduce real gross domestic product by 0.6 percent, a relatively modest hit in
an economy growing at more than 9 percent annually. Ma's figures suggest
a stronger yuan would increase unemployment by 0.4 percent, which amounts to
about 3 million jobs in a work force of 780 million. Real exports would likely
fall by 2.5 percent while imports would increase 1 percent. To be sure,
some of China's
neighbors would stand to benefit if the yuan rose significantly. Nations such
as Vietnam
which emulated the Chinese export model as a way to speed up economic
development might see more business swing their way.
taly is too big to fail and too big to save given the
current framework, so creating a credible medium term financing option for the
solvent but illiquid Italy
is the alpha and omega for the EU political leadership and the ECB.
Keynes may have said: the market can remain irrational
longer than I can remain solvent
hort Opportunities - There is no doubt about it; shorting
in this kind of manipulated market is dangerous, but if you must, here are a
few ideas: Apple (APPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Salesforce.com
(CRM). Only short these with very tight stops
Silver is likely to go substantially up in the next decade
va fi extins la 275 miliarde lire sterline (424 miliarde
dolari) de la 200 miliarde lire sterline, măsura fiind votată de către
Comitetul de Politică Monetară al instituţiei.
Rata de referinţă a dobânzii a rămas la 0,5%. Această mişcare, prima de acest gen din noiembrie 2009, a Potrivit calculelor instituţiei, aceste măsuri de relaxare fiscală vor duce la o creştere a PIB-ului cu până la 2% în acest an.
Rata de referinţă a dobânzii a rămas la 0,5%. Această mişcare, prima de acest gen din noiembrie 2009, a Potrivit calculelor instituţiei, aceste măsuri de relaxare fiscală vor duce la o creştere a PIB-ului cu până la 2% în acest an.
ulte persoane se uită la poze şi filmări ale prietenilor
(59,3%), caută informaţii noi (58,6%) sau citesc ce scriu alte persoane
(44,5%). Dintre utilizatorii care accesează zilnic sau aproape zilnic reţelele
sociale, 43,3% declară că acordă maxim o oră din timpul online socializării.
Totuşi, există un procent important de 33% care dedică între 1 şi 3 ore,
respectiv 13,2% care dedică între 3 şi 5 ore reţelelor sociale.
China:
76.000 de kilometri de autostrăzi au adus o creștere economică de 6%
http://www.capital.ro/detalii-articole/stiri/ibm-rezolva-una-dintre-cele-mai-importante-probleme-ale-oraselor-locurile-de-parcare-154072.html
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