If you look at the Forbes 400 richest
Americans you will see that the industry that has the most rich people is
"investments" (96 people, or 24%). The next category is technology
which has 48 people. So investments have generated twice as many billionaires
as America's
powerful and dynamic technology sector. By the way, manufacturing has only 17
people on the list.
aftermath of a financial crisis brings slow and halting
growth, sustained high unemployment, and surging public debt—with the overhang
of public and private debt being the most important impediment to a normal
recovery from recession.
On average, it takes four and a half years to get back to
the same per capita GDP where you started out and about the same amount of time
for unemployment to stop rising.
verhang of private and public debt that is much more severe
than it is after a normal recession. There are many mortgages still under
water—perhaps 25 percent—and people are more cautious about extending their
borrowing than they were before 2007. That leads to slower consumption growth.
Businesses in turn invest more slowly.
Most financial crises have at their root very, very high
leverage.
I would start with changing our corporate-tax law and any
overt incentives that favor debt.
governments need to find ways to spark market innovation in
indexing debt instruments. If we had housing loans indexed to, say, regional
housing prices, as Bob Shiller has advocated, it would have helped a lot and
provided better incentives to borrowers and lenders.2 If in
200 or 300 years, we’re experiencing fewer and milder financial crises, it will
be because we figured out how to put some basic indexation clauses into debt
that make it a little less vulnerable to systemic risk.
in the 1300s and 1400s the Catholic Church—which was the
regulator at the time, of course—had very strict usury laws. The financiers got
around them by thinking of very clever devices, including denominating loans to
be repaid in a foreign currency. You give the money in a weaker currency and
require the repayment in a stronger currency, which, of course, everyone
perfectly well understood to be equivalent to paying interest.
Innovation is always ahead of the regulators.
I do think that this is a period when we shouldn’t be
worried about raising inflation slightly. Indeed, moderate inflation, I would
say, is exactly the prescription for a Great Depression–type scenario or a
Japan-type scenario. It lowers real interest rates, helps facilitate housing
price adjustment (the real price still needs to come down in many places), and
modestly shortens the typical long post-crisis deleveraging period. I’ve pushed
the idea, for some time, that we’re in a Great Contraction, not in a typical
recession,
When debt gets over a certain level—a good marker is 90
percent of GDP—it is linked to lower growth.
If elevated inflation—I’ve suggested 4 to 6 percent for a
few years—somewhat reduces real debt levels
how much should they worry about whether inflation is under
2 percent right now when the euro could fall apart in the next year or two?
Inflation is not a panacea, but this is a once in eight or
ten decades situation where it would be helpful.
y any historical benchmark, Greece,
Portugal, and probably Ireland are way
over the line. Their debts should be dramatically reduced—for Greece by at
least 60 percent or 70 percent. Portugal
probably 40 to 50 percent. Ireland
is more complicated because it’s difficult to disentangle what’s government
debt and what’s bank debt. The big problem is Ireland’s bank debt. But the
government has guaranteed it.
What indicators would you look to for signs that we’re
finally starting to get out of this?
Job growth and unemployment. I don’t expect unemployment to
come down again to 4 or 4.5 percent until the next time the economy overheats.
That level was never normal. More likely, when this is all over, unemployment
will settle down at around 6.5 or 7 percent. Until we’ve seen unemployment come
down to a level like that, things will remain precarious.
f selected existing technologies were deployed to the
fullest by 2020, a new home could consume around 90 percent less energy,
whether gas or electricity, from the grid than it does today. The opportunity
for existing homes, which form the majority of housing stock, is substantial
too: cuts of 35 to 40 percent could be achieved.
Energy utilities would thus be hit by lower revenues and
profits, both in retailing and generating power. For the latter, margins could
fall by 30 percent in a scenario in which new homes became almost energy neutral
We don’t expect truly disruptive technologies to boom over
the next ten years and lead the way to the low-energy home of the futureThe
pace at which a wide range of relatively mature and emerging technologies
develop and become commercially viable will therefore determine when we can see
a critical level of consumer adoption. That in turn would enable production at
scale, further reducing costs and paving the way for mass adoption.
One example is “active windows” with coatings that block
incoming light when temperatures are high. They could recoup investments in
less than three years when installed in new homes.
we expect the push for low-energy homes, where energy
efficiency measures reduce demand for power
Sweden,
for example, increasingly supports the conversion of electric heating to heat
pumps and biofuels, and the United
Kingdom is introducing a “green deal” to
help consumers finance energy efficiency packages
In the 2020 time frame, low-energy homes will not be “smart
homes.” Building fabrics (such as roof and wall insulation) and central systems
(including heat pumps) represent approximately half of the total value pool
across the four countries (Exhibit 3). Appliances (such as energy-efficient
white goods) represent a bit less than a third, and microgeneration around 10
percent. While growing fast, smart applications (for instance, metering) do not
represent much value. The same holds true for electric vehicles, which we see
more as a post-2020 opportunity.
When you print money everything goes up at different times,
different asset classes. I think
that stocks may still continue to go up, and I would rather
own equities than government bonds for the next 10 years. - in CNBC
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas. Bond ETF (TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond ETF (IEF)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas. Bond ETF (TLT), iShares Lehman 7-10 Yr Treas. Bond ETF (IEF)
CHIMA
National Bureau of Statistics show that home prices have
fallen up to 50% in many parts of the country in the period from July to
September
http://www.gizmag.com/japanese-spherical-flying-machine/20286/
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