As my readers can imagine, I am extremely cynical about forecasts by experts. In every major investment mania there is a large number of academics and ―experts who will justify and fuel the increase in prices by writing papers about the merits of the inflating asset class.

I have experienced the implosion of high quality growth stocks in 1973/74 (for growth you can pay any price), the demise of the Japanese stock market after 1989 (then the most popular stock market in the world), the Asian crisis in 1997 (among investment strategists- Asia was at the time- the most favored investment destination), the collapse of the NASDAQ after March 2000 (then the darling of the investment community) and the housing slump after 2006 (remember, home prices never decline!).

In fact, history is littered with poor forecasts by experts and people in the know: In 1876, a Western Union internal memorandum stated that this "telephone" has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.

In 1895, Lord Kelvin President of the Royal Society, opined that heavier than air flying machines are impossible. Before the First World War, Marshall Foche thought that "airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value."

An associate of David Sarnoff (RCA) said in the 1920s that "the wireless music box (radio)" has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?

Harry Warner exclaimed in 1927, "who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" In 1943, IBM President Thomas Watson‘s view was that "there is a world market for maybe five computers" and as late as 1977, Ken Olson- the founder of mini-computer leader Digital Equipment, opined that "there is no reason for any individuals to have a computer in their homes."

My advice is "Listen to Expert". Simply because you can learn a lot from their deep knowledge about an industry, a region, a company or any field in which they specialize. Do listen to them even if you completely disagree with their views. However, beware of their predictions and forecasts because by specializing in one field, “experts” may overlook exogenous factors, which may influence the outcome of future events and trends

In his latest view on the markets, the quintessential contrarian suggested in his October edition of the Gloom Boom Doom Report that the real threat to global markets is China, not the global financial crisis epicenter of Europe.

China, he stated, may be on the verge of economic collapse, stemming from the dreaded one-two punch of rapidly increased capital goods overcapacity to match significant reductions of global demand for its products.

he Dollar can be your best friend in the short term, in the longterm it is doomed

Just about every time you go against panic, you will be right if you can stick it out.

One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do.Most people, always have to be playing: they always have to be doing something. own the US dollar because I know the standard reaction in times of confusion is to run to the US dollar. It`s the wrong thing to do in my view but they are all going to do it.

he Belgian government will buy Dexia Bank Belgium for $ 4 billion.

DNB’s physical gold holdings function as the ultimate reserve and anchor of trust in times of financial crisis. DNB’s physical gold holdings function as the ultimate reserve and anchor of trust in times of financial crisis.

http://www.gizmag.com/tug-preventing-dog-collar/20101/

http://www.gizmag.com/compound-reverses-diabetes/20093/

http://www.gizmag.com/ipet-companion-home-version/20088/

http://www.gizmag.com/comet-found-with-ocean-like-water/20080/

http://www.gizmag.com/ucla-brain-memory-rhythm/20070/

e series of signals one neuron gets from the others to which it's connected, dubbed "spike trains," arrive with variable frequencies and timing, and it's these trains that induce formation of stronger synapses- the very basis for "practice makes perfect."

http://www.gizmag.com/ucla-brain-memory-rhythm/20070/

A survey of affluent households around the world -- defined as having wealth of more than $100,000 -- by research firm TNS found 80 percent of such people live in Western countries.
While the number of affluent households in China and India is 3 million each, the U.S. has more than 31 million, the survey shows

What really surprises is China has surpassed Germany, France and the UK when it comes to the number of affluent. (But) it will take some time before we really see a shift from West to East," The number of households with more than $100,000 in liquid assets stands at 2.9 million in the UK, 2.5 million in Germany and 2.7 million in France, the survey of 12,000 people in 24 countries found.

The influential economist and Nobel laureate James Heckman, among others, has asserted that early educational investments have the highest return, because of the cumulative nature of skill development (“skill begets skill”). By the time a high school student is on the verge of college (or an older worker is considering returning to school), this argument goes, it may be too expensive to try to fix skill deficiencies that trace back decades.

A sharp rise in China's yuan currency might cut the U.S. trade deficit by as much as one third and create enough American jobs to put at least a modest dent in the unemployment rate.

Paul Krugman has forcefully argued that accelerated yuan appreciation would help US employment,

Presidential elections are good for stocks.
(Forbes Magazine dated October 24, 2011)

Presidents have sought another term 14 times. Only four failed, and these losers were weak. Hoover ran against the Great Depression he presided over and lost. In 1976 Ford, a political novice who had never run a major race in his life, was barely beaten by Carter. Of course, Carter was an easy mark for Ronald Reagan, the greatest GOP campaigner ever. In 1992 incumbent George H.W. Bush lost against the recession begun on his watch and the second-best Democratic campaigner ever, Bill Clinton

Of the 21 election years since the S&P index began, 17 were positive. That’s 81%, and the average total return during those election years was 10.9%.

I recommended WYNN RESORTS (WYNN, 115) at 66 on Nov. 2, 2009. While the stock has had a nice run, its profits have lagged. Wynn is a big player in the ultra-high-end market, with more revenue per gaming table than competitors. It’s particularly sensitive to Chinese gambling, which is booming. Steve Wynn is a moneymaker, and while the stock has never appeared cheap, it’s now less than ten times my 2013 earnings estimate. I recommend buying this casino bargain if you missed out on my 2009 call.

Here is another “below ten” price/earnings multiple stock: ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES (RCL, 22). It’s down 54% this year as investors expect that a global recession will kill cruise travel. This is the best time to buy a stock like this. Its 42 ships control a quarter of the world cruise market, and in my view it is the best managed of the bunch. As recession fears fade the stock will bounce. It sells for 70% of revenue, 60% of book value and a P/E of eight.

Like Hess ( HES – news – people ), recommended last month, Houston’s APACHE (APA, 80) is back to its mid-2009 recession price. With 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent reserves, it’s as solid as they come when it comes to oil and gas exploration and production companies. It’s cheaper than its peers at 8.1 times trailing earnings and 4 times what I think it should earn in 2013.

rving, Tex.-based FLOWSERVE (FLS, 74) is down 37% in 2011. The company makes fluid handling gear, including pumps, valves and seals. Flowserve ( FLS – news – people ) is not exactly a household name, but its products are widely used in industries around the world, including power generation and chemical processing. It employs 15,000 people in 50 countries, but it is sensitive to the economy. Having managed itself well through the last downturn, it should again if we have another. But assuming we don’t, earings should expand nicely. It sells at 9 times my estimate of 2011 earnings and 1.1 times annual revenue.

Brazil’s TAM (TAM, 16) is South America’s top-of-the-line airline, with 98 destinations, mostly inside burgeoning Brazil. Its reputation is so good it can actually charge premium prices. Yet the stock sells at only 40% of annual revenue and five times my estimate of 2011 earnings. Its 2011 dividend yield is nearly 4%.

This week brought two more bits of housing news which underline what strange times we live in. On Thursday, rates on a 30-year mortgage dropped below 4 percent for the first time ever. And yet, we also learned that the last decade saw the steepest decline in home ownership since the Great Depression. Home ownership dropped to 65.1 percent in April 2010, 1.1 percentage points lower than it was in 2000, and more than 4 percentage points below its peak around 2004, when ownership rates approached 70 percent. That’s the biggest decline since the 1930s, when home ownership plunged 4.2%.

hen the US dollar strengthens, Asian markets tend to perform poorly

lack men in America earned 74.5 percent of a typical white man’s wage; black women earned 69.6 percent

Bruxelles a produit 4.100 logements supplémentaires par an entre 2003 et 2008. Elle est encore loin des quelque 7.000 logements de plus par an qu'elle devrait atteindre pour faire face à l'essor démographique, e taux d'accroissement du stock de logements est deux à trois fois supérieur en Brabant flamand et en Brabant wallon. En Belgique, on a produit durant la même période 58.400 logements supplémentaires

Bruxelles, neuf logements sur dix résultent d'initiatives privées. Un tiers de ceux-ci proviennent de la transformation de bâtiments existants, essentiellement dans le centre de la capitale. Les constructions neuves sont surtout situées dans les communes de la seconde couronne. Près de la moitié des logements créés sont des appartements à deux chambres. Les appartements à une et trois chambres représentent chacun 20% de la production

proposals to fix infrastructure like airports, railways and electricity grids and to expand broadband Internet networks as a way to boost hiring and speed up flagging growth.

streamlining drug approvals, reducing costs of initial public offerings and improving air traffic control t seeks to bolster entrepreneurship by changing student loan repayment rules for graduates who own or work for new companies and offering visas to foreign-born entrepreneurs who form or join start-ups in the United States.

eijing will buy more shares in China’s biggest banks, oming as the Chinese stock market closed at a 30-month low, the move was the strongest sign that Beijing wants to engineer a restoration of confidence in share prices and the economy. It paid instant dividends with a rally in the final minutes of trading on Monday.

Austrian mega bank Erste, which issued an ad hoc and very unexpected press release, in which it warned that losses in its Hungarian and Romanian books would lead to a 14% hit, or €1.1 billion

The United States: Produced 25% of all Global Silver 1900-1950

The pre-industrial farmer with horse and plow was able to produce 10 calories (of food) formarket for every 1 calorie of energy (food) consumed by the operation. Today, the modernfarmer needs to consume 10 calories of energy to provide only 1 calorie of food for market. Ifwe consider this ratio, the modern farmer is 98.8% less efficient than the simple farmer withhorse and plow. he only reason why modern farming practices have been successful at this horrible rate ofefficiency is due to the high EROI of energy over the past 100 years.

Global silver production declined 38% from 1929 to 1932, whereas gold production actuallyincreased 24% in these three years. It took eight years before the world was able to increasesilver production over its 1929 figure. Gold on the other hand, increased its global production astaggering 80% during the same time