joi, 8 septembrie 2011


The Chinese yuan is the best...the US dollar is probably good in the short term, but the absolute worst over the long term

a dictatorial regime survives by quantity of information, and fails by reliable information. Quantity vs quality è % increase of one is equal for the other



positive on stocks


One step getting considerable attention inside and outside the Fed would shift the central bank's portfolio of government bonds so that it holds more long-term securities and fewer short-term securities.
...
A second step under consideration at the Fed, one getting mixed reviews internally, would reduce or eliminate a 0.25% interest rate the Fed currently is paying banks that keep cash on reserve with the central bank.




The safe haven Swiss franc is now pegged to the not so safe haven euro and Japanese money printing is leading to question marks over the safe haven status of the yen. Therefore, risk averse money is likely to flow into gold.
Gold is an internationally traded currency that is not controlled by any one government and therefore cannot be debased, unlike fiat currencies. A way to control gold (at least in the short term) is by market manipulation and capping or lowering the price at key strategic and psychological moments in order to prevent enthusiasm and the public from seeking out the safe haven.


s Chazz Evans just noted, QE3 can not come soon enough, and it can certainly not be big enough. Wall Street, bonuses entirely contingent on this fiction becoming fact, is therefore more than happy to shape Fed opinion, and confirm that QE3 is now priced in to such a degree that a disappointment will raise the terrifying specter of bloodthirsty, demonic hyperdeflation once again. Below, via Bloomberg, is a summary of what the various Wall Street "strategists" also known as groputhink lemmings, because none of these said Op Twist was coming as recently as a month ago, think is coming out of the Fed as soon as 2 weeks from today...
  • BAML: Purchases likely concentrated in 7- to 10-yr sector
  • Barclays: Fed likely to sell $440b of securities maturing in 1-4 yrs, buy $660b in the 5.5- to 30-yr sectors
  • Credit Suisse: Fed can buy $360b in the 10-yr sector, matched by sales in the 1- to 3-yr sector, before running into position limits
  • Deutsche Bank: Buying likely to be concentrated in 7- to 10-yr sector; Fed has limited ability to buy longer-maturity paper
  • FTN: Baseline expectation is $300b of sales of debt maturing in 0.5 to 2.5 years, reinvestment contcentrated in 8- to 30-yr debt
  • Morgan Stanley: Fed likely to sell all 0- to 2-yr debt, buy the 8- to 10-yr and 30-yr sectors
  • RBS: Fed likely to sell 0- to 3-yr sector, buy mostly 7- to 10-yr sector




UN Security Council Finds Iran Is Violating The Nuclear Weapons Program Ban


. The United States, Germany, France and Britain joined forces in exposing Tehran's advanced 20-per-cent uranium enrichment, which is considered military weapons grade.

Expect a flare up in anti-Iran rhetoric in the next few days.


In retrospect, the only thing oil needs in addition to QE3 being launched in 2 weeks is a major military campaign against one of the biggest petroleum countries in the world. It does however, explain why WTI is now inching into $90s territory, and why Brent will soon take out its all time highs.



http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/macro-ad-hoc/probability-of-us-recession-still-appears-overblown-1505095702?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Trading-Floor+%28TradingFloor%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

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