Credit Suisse forecasts property prices will decline in the second half, as sentiment surveys show enthusiasm towards property ownership beginning to wane.

Over 200 years ago, Napoleon was forced to sell France’s claim to 828,000 square miles of land in the New World in order to cover his war expenses. US President Thomas Jefferson happily obliged, paying the modern equivalent of around $315 million (based on the gold price), roughly 59 cents per acre in today’s money.

rgentina’s millennial debt crisis is a great example of this… suddenly the power failed, the police stopped working, the gas stations closed, the grocery stores ran out of food, the retirement checks stopped coming, and the banks went under (taking people’s life savings with them)

Equity investors shouldn’t let $1800 gold dissuade them from participating in precious metals equities. The world is still dramatically underexposed to gold, and we firmly believe it should represent a higher percentage of investors’ total portfolios today. Th

2011 SAT Reading Scores hit all-time low

to Goldman both the Fed and the ECB have to engage asap in yet another episode of bonus-preserving currency debasement, middle class be damned

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/soros-thinks-unthinkable-about-europe

There is no alternative but to give birth to the missing ingredient: a European treasury with the power to tax and therefore to borrow. This would require a new treaty, transforming the EFSF into a full-fledged treasury.

To resolve a crisis in which the impossible becomes possible it is necessary to think about the unthinkable. To start with, it is imperative to prepare for the possibility of default and defection from the eurozone in the case of Greece, Portugal, and perhaps Ireland. To prevent a financial meltdown, four sets of measures would have to be taken.

First, bank deposits have to be protected. If a euro deposited in a Greek bank would be lost to the depositor, a euro deposited in an Italian bank would then be worth less than one in a German or Dutch bank and there would be a run on the banks of other deficit countries.

Second, some banks in the defaulting countries have to be kept functioning in order to keep the economy from breaking down.

Third, the European banking system would have to be recapitalized and put under European, as distinct from national, supervision.

Fourth, the government bonds of the other deficit countries would have to be protected from contagion. The last two requirements would apply even if no country defaults.

the gold buyers were not buying gold because of inflation fears but because they were afraid of a systemic failure.

Today, the gold price is cheaper than in the 1980s when it was around 400 dollars an ounce, considering the increase in global monetary base and the US money printing.

am short stocks, I am short stocks in Europe, I am short stocks in America (related tickers: SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY) and I am short emerging markets

Septante-cinq à 80 % des candidats à l'achat passeraient d'abord par l'offre sur la Toile.

As recently as 1990, Americans on average saved about 7% of their income (which allowed them to buy up much of the debt the government was issuing). But the savings rate fell over the 15 years that followed, hitting zero in 2005. Unlike in China, where the average savings rate is said to be 20% (some unofficial reports have it as high as 40%), or even in some European countries where it is reported at 10%, the savings rate in America is now negative.

individual Americans who have racked up $8.7 trillion in home mortgages

$2.2 trillion in consumer credit ($36,333 per person).

Home buyers will cut back on what they are willing to pay, so prices will decline.
2. Homeowners will see their equity shrink and then disappear. Mortgage lenders will swallow huge losses as many home owners default.
3. Homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages will be squeezed; and

3a. Many will be forced to sell, so prices will decline; and

3b. The rest will cut back on consumer spending in order to keep their houses and so will push the economy toward recession.

Morgan Stanley

We believe DMeconomies are now at the end of their debt supercycle.

arket sentiment and valuation are low in a historicalcontext, but are not yet at extreme levels of bearishness – for example, there is still 10% downside to asingle-digit Shiller PE for Europe. Furthermore, equitiesare unlikely to bottom until we get evidence offundamental improvement

stocks areunlikely to trough until we see all of the following: #1Large-scale QE from the ECB; #2 New fiscal policy toprovide short-term boost and longer-term sustainability;#3 Debt write-downs for over-levered entities

poor growth and heighteneduncertainty that should in turn lead to a lower multiple for stocksand supports our thesis that the market is likely to overshoot onthe downside as we go through this process

ven with the ECB buying Italian andSpanish bonds through its SMP program the risk is that thesecountries have lost the confidence of the marketplace and thatreal money investors will be reluctant to return at this stage. Asillustrated in exhibit 4, Italy is the largest bond market in Europe(and 3

rd

largest in the world) at around €1.4trn – to providesome context the current scheduled size of the EFSF will be€440bn

oving further out the spectrum, if the Fed were to engage inadditional QE along the lines of QE1 and QE2 we would againbe cautious about any possible positive outcome. The reasonfor our skepticism is that we believe that the key driver of stocksis growth and not liquidity.

Chinese policymakers have been giving out signals that they are now aiming for full convertibility  of the Yuan by 2015.

teps to develop the Shanghai stock market including the listing of many non Chinese multinationals, and major development of the domestic bond market.

more central banks talking about diversifying into the RMB

Chinese equities not rally? I don’t know, but I suspect it is because the CPI improvement was smaller than hoped for, and without an “all clear” regarding the inflation outlook from the Chinese leaders

the Franc fell by over 8 pct, which I think has to perhaps be the single fastest large move of a major currency since floating markets commenced in the 1970’s

Saxo Bank – usd – cny

Spania şi Italia au nevoie de un ajutor financiar din partea FMI.

http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/64679950

If the Fed were to embark onanother round of QE in its current form it is unlikely to drive ameaningful rally for US stocks. However, European marketsshould respond more strongly if the ECB were to go down thisroute

1) ECB to embark on large-scale QE;2) A restructuring and re-orientation of fiscal policy to create asustainable long-term framework as well as investment in realassets and jobs that will enhance growth and productivity in thefuture;3) Restructuring of debts for some over-levered entitieswhether they be countries, banks or households

Equities look very cheap versus bonds

Schiller index for Europe – pag 10

Global gold equities underperformed gold by 30% as gold rallied 46% y/y

ABX, ABG, NCM, PMTL, 1051.HK.

GOLDMAN

the banks are buying everything that their clients have to sell in advance of, you guessed QE3 in the US and more QE in the UK, Europe and Japan for one last record bonus hu

Our GDP forecast remains unchanged.

Goldman Sachs Economics expects 2.0% GDPgrowth in 2012, although it currently assigns a one in three probability that the US willhave a recession in the next 6-9 months

Spx – 1250 – end 2011, 1300 – 6 luni, 1350 – 12 luni

The 95% confidence interval of our uncertainty-based P/E fair value estimate over thenext one to three months ranges from 9.2X to 11.4X with a midpoint of 10.3X.

TheS&P 500 currently trades at a forward P/E of 11.3X b

Graphic p/e 10 e o medie decenta

Cross-asset valuation implies that the S&P 500 is trading at a steep discount.

S&P 500 P/B ratio has declined to 2.0x during the recent market correction

ROE – chart

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-cuts-2011-sp-price-target-1400-1250

rise of spx to 1400 to dec,

volatility biggest in 80 years

sep is down on average

only 5 times the spx got down for 5 months conseq

energy industry and financials are the best, health care & consumer stamples are the worse

thiwst on bonds was done in 60, and increased that month by 2%, and year by 16%. This time should have a positive influence. It's done on 20Sep