The gold price is coming down, and I hope it will drop 100 or 200 dollars. Not necessarily a prediction. I think we will go down in a correction because there has been too much enthusiasm recently
All I am saying is I am very bearish. I think we will have inflation. I think the Treasury market is a disaster waiting to happen. I think the economy will slow down. They’re going to print money and we will go to war at some stage somewhere
e had rally from the low on the ninth of August at 1,101 on the S&P to almost 1,200. Then we came right down again. Basically we did not make new lows. And now I think we can rally again for a while.
I think a lot of people will say the markets formed a double low and we have some technical indicators that are going to turn positive, so we could rally around 1,250, but as I said before, for me, we reached a high on May 2, 2011. 1,370 on the S&P–that we will not go through. My view is you have a lot of people with strategies that are very bullish. They have a yearend target of around 1,400-1,450 on the S&P. Then you have the super bear. I think both camps will be disappointed.
I think a lot of people will say the markets formed a double low and we have some technical indicators that are going to turn positive, so we could rally around 1,250, but as I said before, for me, we reached a high on May 2, 2011. 1,370 on the S&P–that we will not go through. My view is you have a lot of people with strategies that are very bullish. They have a yearend target of around 1,400-1,450 on the S&P. Then you have the super bear. I think both camps will be disappointed.
It would be very dangerous to say "I don’t trust stocks, gold, real estate, I want to keep my money in cash. That’s a way to end up losing a lot of money...
We’re in a paradoxical situation where under a traditional monetary system the safest places are cash, Treasury deposits, government bonds. Nowadays, they have been made by monetization into the most unsafe assets from a longer term perspective.
Weak economies usually have higher inflation rates than stronger economies. In weak economies you have loose fiscal policies and money printing. And the U.S. is the world champion in loose monetary policies. I don’t believe a single word of what the Bureau of Labor Statistics is printing about inflation figures.
Paper money has lost its value. Hyperinflation is the pattern to come
We’re in a paradoxical situation where under a traditional monetary system the safest places are cash, Treasury deposits, government bonds. Nowadays, they have been made by monetization into the most unsafe assets from a longer term perspective.
Weak economies usually have higher inflation rates than stronger economies. In weak economies you have loose fiscal policies and money printing. And the U.S. is the world champion in loose monetary policies. I don’t believe a single word of what the Bureau of Labor Statistics is printing about inflation figures.
Paper money has lost its value. Hyperinflation is the pattern to come
Well, governments are printing money again. It's a wrong thing to do but that's all they know to do. So between shortages of supply and money printing, if you want to be in the dynamic parts of the world economy, don't get an MBA and go to Wall Street, go and get a farming degree and move to Asia.
At some times in history, the financials types have been in charge; at other times in history the people who produced real goods have been in charge. It's the way the world has always worked. The key of course is to figure out what's coming next and go there. Become a Chinese farmer, that's what you should do
The largest creditor nations in the world now, are China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore. Those are all Asian countries. This is where the assets are. This is where the energy is, the dynamism is. You know who the debtors are and where they are. –
The 19th century was the century of the UK, the 20th century was the century of the US, the 21st century is the century of China, of Asia.
Pieţele mondiale aşteaptă vineri cu nerăbdare discursul preşedintelui Rezervei Federale americane, Ben Bernanke. Analiştii se aşteaptă ca Ben Bernanke să anunţe noi măsuri de stimulare a economiei, posibil o nouă rundă de relaxare cantitativă (QE3).
Stiglitz a adăugat că măsurile de austeritate pe care le propun reprezentanţii Partidului Republican ar transforma încetinirea economiei într-o mare depresiune similară cu cea din anii 1930.
Nu are niciun dubiu: Până la finalul acestui an, americanii vor începe să tipărească bani. Mai tehnic spus, Fed va începe cel de-al treilea program Quantitative Easing.
Acești bani vor intra în circuitul economic printr-o operațiune de cumpărare de bonduri emise de Trezoreria Americană.
conomia Chinei ar putea creşte cu 9,28% anul acesta, dacă SUA nu intră într-o nouă recesiune şi dacă zona euro reuşeşte să administreze corect criza datoriilor suverane
Foarte probabil, creşterea economică a Chinei va rămâne pentru o perioadă în intervalul 8-9%”, spune şi Li Wenpu, economist la Xiamen.
Dacă totuşi SUA intră din nou în recesiune în primul semestru al 2012, asta însemnând o creştere economică mai mică de 1,1%, economia chineză va creşte la anul cu doar 8,24%, cu 0,67% mai puţin decât estimările prezente.
Dacă totuşi SUA intră din nou în recesiune în primul semestru al 2012, asta însemnând o creştere economică mai mică de 1,1%, economia chineză va creşte la anul cu doar 8,24%, cu 0,67% mai puţin decât estimările prezente.
Mai intai, cel mai probabil, e scenariul pesimist cu scaderi in doua faze: o data valul (III - in cerc pe graficul alaturat, n.red) pana la 15.000-14.500 de puncte, dupa care ar urma o revenire destul de semnificativa pana pe la 17.000-18.000, valul (IV); apoi o a doua scadere, valul (V) pana la 10.700, ar fi cea care marcheaza incheierea intregului val descendent C
A plunge in recent economic data puts the probability of a double-dip recession ![[cnbc explains]](file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/gheordi/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/msohtml1/02/clip_image001.gif)
above 80 percent, according to modeling by Bank of America Merrill Lynch released Wednesday,
above 80 percent, according to modeling by Bank of America Merrill Lynch released Wednesday,The Merrill economics team is less pessimistic than Schiff and is quick to point out that since 1990, the Philly Fed has signaled recessions six times that have never come to fruition. Therefore, a sudden drop of this magnitude is not unusual for this indicator.
but the reality is we are headed towards a recession and we're running out of policy bullets. one of the few policy bullets left is for monetary policy or Quantitative easing. initial claims, announced layoffs, gdp numbers were low and they will be even lower tomorrow morning for QE2, home sales collapsing, starts still down, every economic indicator suggests we're already beyond the stall speed, we're at the beginning of an economic contraction at this point
think the reference to money aggregates and balance sheets and oil and gold refers to inflation about to happen,
Food prices (NYSE :DBA) are skyrocketing all across the globe, and there’s no end in sight. he United Nations says food inflation is currently at 30% a year, and the fast-eroding value of the dollar is causing food prices to appear even higher in contrast to a weakening currency.
:DBA) are skyrocketing all across the globe, and there’s no end in sight. he United Nations says food inflation is currently at 30% a year, and the fast-eroding value of the dollar is causing food prices to appear even higher in contrast to a weakening currency.George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager, owns 23.4 percent of a South American farmland venture Adecoagro.
outh America is indeed worldwide considered a top place to buy, lease and manage agricultural lands for profit. The region accounts for 59% of global exports of oil seeds, 11% of grains and 37% of meat; with Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay being among the top 10 food exporters
The IMF is trying to sell their gold and if they do then they’ll drive the price of gold down and that may well be the last opportunity to buy gold for a long time.
NYSE:GLD) and silver ETFs (NYSE:SLV) or you can buy mining companies (NYSE:GDX
Hubris equals failure and the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent.
There is no guarantee for sovereign debt, which increases the risks the lenders face, said Wang Tianlong, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a think tank supervised by the country's economic planner, adding that the issuer could be more careless in using the loans.
In the short term, the U.S. doesn't have much ability to reduce its deficit, Wang said in an opinion piece published in Securities Times. He added that the U.S. lacks the political system to guarantee that it will not default on its debt.
There is also no way to punish the issuer country if it falsifies its accounting and there is no way to restructure the issuer either, Wang said.
Wang's comments come after the U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said Sunday the U.S. "never will default" on its government debt and reassured Beijing that Chinese investments in the U.S. are safe.
Slowly, surely, China is realizing that the endgame is nothing short of out of control debt inflation, which is precisely what having no way to "restructure the issuer" means. That plus sending the US to bankruptcy court may be somewhat problematic. It also means that Chinese holdings of US debt will be increasingly worthless, and its population increasingly stabby as the price of hogs resumes its record climb. The only alternative is for the CNY to float and for the Chinese, Russians and Germans to say enough to this broken economic model and launch a gold (and other hard asset) backed currency. The only question is when.
To some extent we are in midst of QE3 already, because by announcing the Fed will keep zero interest rates until the middle of 2013, they basically encourage financial institutions to borrow short-term and to buy 10-year Treasuries"
"On fundamentals one could make the case that we could go lower to around March 2009 lows at 666 on the S&P. But I think we have to be realistic that if the market dropped here another 10% or 15%, there would be for sure another quantitative easing move and other measures taken to support asset prices.
I think new highs are practically out of the question for the next six months to one year. We will likely move lower, but as I said, I do not think we will have a complete collapse
I think we will have zero and below zero interest rates for the next 10 years. In other words, inflation adjusted to keep money in cash.
mpared to all the selling in the last six months the buying is relatively muted.
The steeper the rise of gold the steeper the rise in implied volatility
Bank of America is facing difficulties in selling its 10 per cent stake in China Construction Bank, partly because potential investors are expecting a deluge of rights issues, share sales and new listings from Chinese bank
9,173 Ounces Of Gold Transferred From HSBC To JP Morgan Gold Vaults Overnight
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/podcasting-charts-matter-next-week-continuing-case-weaker-eur
Niciun comentariu:
Trimiteți un comentariu