I don`t think we will make new highs this year. I think the market basically is incredibly oversold at this level and its quite likely that we may bottom out today or tomorrow and have a rally.

They'll try to disguise it. They'll call it cupcakes or who knows what. It'll cause a big rally in raw materials and commodities because more and more people will realize they are printing money, they are debasing the currency. - in Reuters

An announcement by the Fed of yet a third QE stimulus package is a certainty. If the market reaction is especially negative this week, an announcement could even be made before this month is out. I have no doubt, QE3 will be the undoing of this country

CHF is the only certain safe haven among the remaining G10 countries. Moreover it is the only AAA G10 country that whose currency appreciates on bad news

The other G10 AAAs with independent currencies – Canada, Australia, Sweden and Norway tend to sell off when risk aversion rises. Investors may buy JPY despite its own fiscal situation, but the Japanese are increasingly concerned about appreciation given their structural growth and deficit issues. CHF and JPY intervened in currency or money markets over the last week to weaken their currencies.  If they do not intervene again on strength, investors may see them as giving up on intervention because of the magnitude and nature of the forces at play. The odds are that the week will start with FX investors challenging the SNB and MoF to intervene in size.

AAAs -- NOK, SEK, CAD, AUD -- at significantly lower levels.

GS: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-cuts-sp-500-price-target-charts-markets-10-correction

We reduce our 2012 S&P 500 earnings forecast to $102 per share (from $104) and lower our year-end 2011 price target to 1400 (from 1450) due to downward revisions of GDP growth estimates in the US, Europe, and Asia, along with our commodity strategists’ 2012 Brent crude oil forecast of $140/barrel. Our 2012 global GDP growth estimate is now 4.4%, down from 4.6%. We maintain our 2011 EPS forecast of $96 based on strong earnings momentum in 1H 2011 despite weaker than expected economic growth. We expect 15% S&P earnings growth in 2011 and 6% in 2012 driving 17% upside for the index through year-end 2011 and 21% return for the next 12 months.

We expect profit margins to peak in 2011 at a level slightly below our previous estimates. Our estimates for S&P 500 margins remain 8.9% in 2011 and are now 8.7% in 2012, down from 8.8%. That view differs starkly from bottom-up consensus expectations for 9.1% margins in 2011 rising to 9.6% in 2012. We now forecast  margins will decline in five sectors including Materials, Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary.

We lower our S&P 500 sales per share estimate by 1% to $922 ex-Financials and Utilities. Our revenue growth forecasts are now 10% in 2011 and 7% in 2012 and are generally in-line with consensus expectations for 12% growth in 2011 and 6% sales expansion in 2012. The most notable change in our sector sales estimates a -4% revision in Materials sector.

Commodity prices remain a headwind. Goldman Sachs Commodities Research’s forecast for Brent crude to rise 21% to $140/barrel by year-end 2012 is premised on the view that global GDP growth above 3.5% will create a supply-demand imbalance and push oil prices higher until demand rationalizes. High oil prices boost our aggregate sales estimates, benefiting the Energy sector at the expense of lower sales and margins for other US firms.

The current S&P 500 correction is the 15th such pullback since 1975. The index stands 12% below the April 2011 high of 1364, so the drop is 620 bp smaller than the median correction of the past 35 years. At 97 days, the current episode is in-line with the average duration of past corrections.

Multiple contractions during prior market corrections suggests the current forward P/E multiple of 11.3X could be near a valuation-multiple bottom: (1) during the financial crisis, S&P forward P/E bottomed at 10.8X in October 2008; (2) in April 2010 the P/E reached 11.5X as the market digested Europe sovereign credit concerns and slowing US growth; and (3) our uncertainty-based P/E estimate suggests a fair P/E between 9X and 11X. If we are nearing valuation support levels, continued downside risk wouldshift to earnings estimate revisions as well as attendant macro risk premium.


old and sugar have potential to run a lot higher à 2500


http://www.capital.ro/detalii-articole/stiri/surprinzator-industria-porno-face-3000-de-dolari-pe-secunda-151132.html

http://www.capital.ro/detalii-articole/stiri/cum-salveaza-lumea-miliardarul-bill-gates-151090.html


he KBW bank indexes for the United States and Europe contain 24 stocks each. More than a third of them have lost more than a third of their value in six months.
They are:
1. Bank of America, U.S., down 55.4%
2. Commerzbank, Germany, down 55.3%
3. Lloyds Banking, Britain, down 49.5%
4. Société Générale, France, down 45.4%
5. National Bank of Greece, Greece, down 45.2%
6. Regions Financial, U.S., down 43.5%
7. Barclays, Britain, down 43.3%
8. Citigroup, U.S., down 42.8%
9. Suntrust, U.S., down 42.6%.
10. Intesa Sanpaolo, Italy, down 42.2%
11. Crédit Agricole, France, down 40.6%
12. New York Community Bancorp, U.S., down 39.0%
13. Unicredit, Italy, down 38.7%
14. Royal Bank of Scotland, Britain, down 37.8%
15. Bank of New York Mellon, U.S., down 36.1%
16. Fifth Third, U.S., down 35.1%
17. Credit Suisse, Switzerland, down 33.6%.
I think that near-term stock markets around the world are very, very oversold and most oversold since February, March 2009 and 1987," Faber said. "(It) doesn't mean that they can't go lower, but I think they will rebound

Here’s what was happening in 2008:
A) Housing bust: housing prices were already down 20-40% off of their highs.
B) Financial crisis: two major banks had gone bankrupt and every other bank was at risk.
C) Mark-to-market accounting was ruining bank balance sheets.
D) The uptick rule had been abolished on short-selling.
E) We were already in a recession.
http://alpeshblog.com/2011/08/08/goldman-sachs-forex-and-equity-market-forecasts-lastest/

http://alpeshblog.com/2011/08/08/view-from-head-of-goldman-sachs-asset-management/

he fact that the Swiss Franc has rallied so significantly in recent months continues to confound, with the market tracking well overbought and begging for a major corrective pullback. Quite often, accelerations in the direction of the trend after a market has been trending in one direction for an extended period of time is often indicative of a final push before the market snaps back hard and reverses course sharply. We contend that the latest acceleration in Franc gains has reached these levels and we could very well see a violent reversal out of Francs over the coming sessions

Chairman Ben Bernanke made it clear that another round of monetary accommodation (aka QE3) would depend on both a further deteriorating in the economic outlook and the renewed threat of deflation.
chairman of S&P’s sovereign-ratings committee, stated that only five governments have ever regained a triple-A rating after losing it, and the earliest any of them got it back was nine yearsS&P said that there was a 1-in-3 chance it would downgrade the U.S. again to double-A (AA) over the next six months to two years.

think that near-term stock markets around the world are very, very oversold and most oversold since February, March 2009 and 1987. It doesn't mean that they can't go lower, but I think they will rebound. - in CNBC, August 9

1. FTSE 100 so major global company

2. Valuation better than FTSE 100 average based on Price to Book (FTSE 100 av is 3.11).

3. Performance better than FTSE 100 ytd (FTSE 100 is down 17% YTD)

4. Avoid stocks in same sector

5. Stocks if they return to the high of the past two years will provide a 25%+ return

6. Stocks which had recouped their credit-crunch share price drops

Names:

1. Serco

2. Autonomy

3. Tate and Lyle

4. BG Group

5. Rolls Royce

6. G4S

7. Pearson

8. WM Morrison

9. Rexam

10. Legal and General

11. Vodafone

In my opinion, around this level, government bonds in the US are the short of the century.
You should nearly always buy into panic just like you should sell hysteria. I own gold, I'm worried about gold, it's going so up so much, I'm not going to sell it but it looks like it's setting itself up for a nice correction. I hope so then I can buy more. –

http://businessday.ro/08/2011/cateva-idei-despre-ce-se-intampla-acum-pe-pietele-financiare/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Khrisro+%28Khrisro.ro%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

de CUMP ACTIUNI !!!

Conducerea Fed se întâlneşte marţi, iar comunicatul din finalul şedinţei, aşteptat la 14:15 EDT (21:15 ora Românie

http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/editors-choice/saxo-banks-outrageous-prediction-for-crude-comes-true-681252738?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Trading-Floor+%28TradingFloor%29&utm_content=Google+Reader