Aşa ceva este puţin probabil, dar dacă se întâmplă, PIB-ul ar putea să scadă cu 5%, iar acţiunile cu 30%", a spus Garthwaite.
economia se va contracta cu 5%,
· US Q2 GDP (1230)
· US Chicago PMI (1345)
· US Michigan Confidence (1355)
· US NAPM – Milwaukee (1400)
· US Fed’s Lockhart and Bullard to speak (1915)
nu poate fi funcțională decât în cazul în care investiția se face în titluri ale firmelor cu grad mic de îndatorare.
Italy sold 10-year bonds at the highest yields in 11 years on Thursday and data showed euro zone economic sentiment worsened more than expected in June.
How important are fundamentals? Very. there are many traders out there that trade solely on technicals and believe fundamentals are either backwards looking or totally misleading (I used to be one of these people). However, fundamentals are responsible for keeping the capital and FX markets from generating meaningful breakouts and sustained trends. The uncertainty that we face in the US deficit debate is keeping the market from committing to a direction with meaningful conviction/size - and hence we are left with the choppy, irratic price action that we've seen over the past few weeks.
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I take these overbearing conditions into mind looking at a few otherwise attractive technical breakouts that have developed over the past couple of days. The EURJPY bearish resolution to its rising wedge pattern, the AUDCAD bullish breakout above 1.0350 and AUDNZD rally above 1.2600 were all attractive setups that I decided to let go because follow through would potentially be held hostage by the risk appetite blackhole that is the US downgrade threat.
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That said, I decided to take a little risk in a small position size with EURUSD break of its rising trend channel from the 12th and range low for the past week at 1.4225. With an entry at 1.4320, 55 point initial stop and first target (second objective loosely set around 1.4000); this is low exposure to any developments that may take place despite larger fundamental hesitations - and possibly a risk aversion pull with the S&P 500 edging below 1,300 and US GDP on deck.
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Another pair that I have yet to take the plunge - but perhaps looks even more attractive than EURUSD - is NZDUSD. The extremely aggressivel bull trend channel seen on the 60min chart finally gave way following the RBNZ's suggestion that they were not contemplating anything more than adding back the 50 bps they cut back in April. A look at the remarkable correlation between NZDUSD price action and the difference in RBNZ-Fed rate expectations shows that there is a serious weight here should selling pressure really take hold.
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Looking at other possibilities out there, NZDJPY on a break above 68.50 is a good alternative to the kiwi bearish scenario on NZDUSD. GBPCAD is still carving out that 1.5525 to 1.5285 range (though it has pushed out its upper range - we can't expect technicals to develop with lazer precision). GBPUSD made a tentative channel break that looks a lot like what EURUSD has shown; and a retest of that former support could tip it into reversal. USDCHF, USDJPY and GBPCHF are all longer-term reversal candidates under the right conditions (conditions that we won't see until next week at the very earliest).
History of US debt
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